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Is Newmont Stock Still a Buy After a 26% Rally in 3 Months?
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Key Takeaways
Newmont's shares gained 26.2% in three months, outpacing the industry and the S&P 500.
Gold's record rally and forecast-topping earnings have powered NEM's performance.
NEM posted lower Q3 gold output from divestments and grades, with declines expected into Q4.
Newmont Corporation’s (NEM - Free Report) shares have popped 26.2% in the past three months, buoyed by a surge in gold prices to record highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions and hopes of more interest rate cuts. NEM’s forecast-topping earnings performance, driven by its operational efficiency and the strength of its Tier 1 portfolio, also contributed to the rally.
NEM stock has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 17.5% rise and the S&P 500’s increase of 6%. Among its gold mining peers, Barrick Mining Corporation (B - Free Report) , Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) and Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) have gained 46.7%, 12.9% and 29.1%, respectively, over the same period.
NEM’s 3-month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Technical indicators for NEM show bullish momentum. The NEM stock has been trading above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) since April 9, 2025, suggesting a long-term uptrend. It is also currently trading above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA is also reading higher than the 200-day SMA, following a golden crossover on April 16, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.
NEM Stock Trades Above 50-Day SMA
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Is the time right to buy NEM’s shares for potential upside? Let’s take a look at the stock’s fundamentals.
Projects & Asset Streamlining to Drive NEM’s Growth
Newmont continues to invest in growth projects in a calculated manner. The company is pursuing several projects, including the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana and the Cadia Panel Caves and Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia. These projects should expand production capacity and extend mine life, driving revenues and profits.
NEM, in October 2025, achieved a significant milestone at Ahafo North. It achieved commercial production at the project, which followed the first gold pour in September 2025. Ahafo North is expected to produce between 275,000 and 325,000 ounces of gold annually over an estimated mine life of 13 years. Production is expected to be 50,000 ounces this year, with a ramp-up to full capacity in 2026.
Newmont has also divested non-core businesses as it shifts its strategic focus to Tier 1 assets. NEM completed its non-core divestiture program in April 2025, with the sale of its Akyem operation in Ghana and its Porcupine operation in Canada. NEM has executed agreements to sell its shares in Greatland Resources Limited and Discovery Silver Corp, for total cash proceeds of around $470 million after taxes and commissions.
Following the sale of these shares, the company anticipates generating $3 billion in after-tax cash proceeds from its 2025 divestiture program. These funds will support Newmont’s capital allocation strategy, which focuses on reinforcing its balance sheet and delivering returns to its shareholders.
Strong Financial Health Supports NEM’s Capital Allocation
Newmont has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allow it to fund its growth projects, meet short-term debt obligations and drive shareholder value. At the end of the third quarter of 2025, Newmont had robust liquidity of $9.6 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of around $5.6 billion. Its free cash flow more than doubled year over year to a record $1.6 billion, led by an increase in net cash from operating activities. Net cash from operating activities shot up 40% from the prior-year quarter to $2.3 billion.
NEM has distributed more than $5.7 billion to its shareholders through dividends and share repurchases over the past two years. It also remains committed to deleveraging, reducing debt by roughly $2 billion in the third quarter, resulting in a near-zero net debt position at the end of the quarter. Newmont has repurchased shares worth $2.1 billion this year, executing $3.3 billion from $6 billion of authorization.
Newmont stands to benefit from the strength in gold prices, which should drive its profitability and cash flow generation. Gold prices have seen a record-setting rally last year, mainly attributable to aggressive trade policies, including sweeping new import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump, which have intensified global trade tensions and heightened investor anxiety. Also, central banks worldwide have been accumulating gold reserves, led by risks arising from Trump’s policies.
Gold prices surged about 65% last year and are now trading above $4,600 per ton. The rally was further supported by the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and expectations of additional easing amid signs of U.S. economic softening and labor market concerns, which helped propel bullion to record levels.
Increased central bank buying, continued expectations of rate cuts, and persistent safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical and trade tensions, as well as broader macroeconomic uncertainty, are expected to underpin gold prices. Rising geopolitical strains, including those linked to the U.S.-Venezuela conflict and the ongoing protests in Iran and the potential U.S. intervention, and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have also fueled the recent spike in bullion to record levels. Together, these factors are likely to keep conditions favorable for further upside in gold prices.
NEM offers a dividend yield of 0.9% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 17% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable). Backed by strong cash flows and sound financial health, the company's dividend is perceived as safe and reliable.
Falling Gold Production Weighs on Newmont’s Performance
Newmont saw lower gold production for the third quarter of 2025, partly linked to its strategic divestment of non-core assets. NEM reported a roughly 15% year-over-year and 4% sequential decline in gold production for the third quarter, reaching 1.42 million ounces. This marked the third straight quarter of sequential production decline. The lower production was due to reduced grades and planned shutdowns at Penasquito and Lihir, and the end of mining operations at the Subika open pit at Ahafo South. NEM’s strategic asset sales, aimed at sharpening focus on Tier-1 operations, have also weighed on production.
Newmont anticipates maintaining its expected gold production for 2025 at about 5.9 million ounces. For the fourth quarter, the company expects attributable production to be relatively in line with the third quarter, as new production from Ahafo North and increased output from the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture are expected to be offset by lower production at Yanacocha and lower grades at Ahafo South. NEM expects fourth-quarter production of 1.415 million ounces, indicating a roughly 25% year-over-year decline. The production decline could undercut the profitability goals for 2025.
NEM’s Earnings Estimates Northbound
Newmont’s earnings estimates for 2025 have been going up over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 has also been revised higher over the same time frame.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is currently pegged at $6.32, suggesting year-over-year growth of 81.6%. Earnings are expected to grow roughly 15.4% in 2026.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
A Look at Newmont Stock’s Valuation
Newmont is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 15.42X, a roughly 5.2% premium to the industry’s average of 14.66X. NEM is trading at a premium to Barrick and Kinross Gold and at a discount to Agnico Eagle. Newmont currently has a Value Score of C. Barrick and Kinross Gold have a Value Score of B, each, while Agnico Eagle has a Value Score of D.
NEM’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, B, AEM and KGC
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Final Thoughts: Hold Onto NEM Shares
Newmont presents an attractive investment case, backed by a robust portfolio of growth projects, the strong performance of its Tier 1 assets and solid financial health. The asset streamlining rooted in Newmont’s objective to concentrate capital on high-return, long-life assets also underpins its long-term sustainability. Other positives include rising earnings estimates and a healthy growth trajectory. The strength in bullion prices should also boost NEM’s profitability and drive cash flow generation. However, weaker production due to divestments and lower grades may weigh on its performance. Retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.
Image: Bigstock
Is Newmont Stock Still a Buy After a 26% Rally in 3 Months?
Key Takeaways
Newmont Corporation’s (NEM - Free Report) shares have popped 26.2% in the past three months, buoyed by a surge in gold prices to record highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions and hopes of more interest rate cuts. NEM’s forecast-topping earnings performance, driven by its operational efficiency and the strength of its Tier 1 portfolio, also contributed to the rally.
NEM stock has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 17.5% rise and the S&P 500’s increase of 6%. Among its gold mining peers, Barrick Mining Corporation (B - Free Report) , Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) and Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) have gained 46.7%, 12.9% and 29.1%, respectively, over the same period.
NEM’s 3-month Price Performance
Technical indicators for NEM show bullish momentum. The NEM stock has been trading above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) since April 9, 2025, suggesting a long-term uptrend. It is also currently trading above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA is also reading higher than the 200-day SMA, following a golden crossover on April 16, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.
NEM Stock Trades Above 50-Day SMA
Is the time right to buy NEM’s shares for potential upside? Let’s take a look at the stock’s fundamentals.
Projects & Asset Streamlining to Drive NEM’s Growth
Newmont continues to invest in growth projects in a calculated manner. The company is pursuing several projects, including the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana and the Cadia Panel Caves and Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia. These projects should expand production capacity and extend mine life, driving revenues and profits.
NEM, in October 2025, achieved a significant milestone at Ahafo North. It achieved commercial production at the project, which followed the first gold pour in September 2025. Ahafo North is expected to produce between 275,000 and 325,000 ounces of gold annually over an estimated mine life of 13 years. Production is expected to be 50,000 ounces this year, with a ramp-up to full capacity in 2026.
Newmont has also divested non-core businesses as it shifts its strategic focus to Tier 1 assets. NEM completed its non-core divestiture program in April 2025, with the sale of its Akyem operation in Ghana and its Porcupine operation in Canada. NEM has executed agreements to sell its shares in Greatland Resources Limited and Discovery Silver Corp, for total cash proceeds of around $470 million after taxes and commissions.
Following the sale of these shares, the company anticipates generating $3 billion in after-tax cash proceeds from its 2025 divestiture program. These funds will support Newmont’s capital allocation strategy, which focuses on reinforcing its balance sheet and delivering returns to its shareholders.
Strong Financial Health Supports NEM’s Capital Allocation
Newmont has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allow it to fund its growth projects, meet short-term debt obligations and drive shareholder value. At the end of the third quarter of 2025, Newmont had robust liquidity of $9.6 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of around $5.6 billion. Its free cash flow more than doubled year over year to a record $1.6 billion, led by an increase in net cash from operating activities. Net cash from operating activities shot up 40% from the prior-year quarter to $2.3 billion.
NEM has distributed more than $5.7 billion to its shareholders through dividends and share repurchases over the past two years. It also remains committed to deleveraging, reducing debt by roughly $2 billion in the third quarter, resulting in a near-zero net debt position at the end of the quarter. Newmont has repurchased shares worth $2.1 billion this year, executing $3.3 billion from $6 billion of authorization.
Newmont stands to benefit from the strength in gold prices, which should drive its profitability and cash flow generation. Gold prices have seen a record-setting rally last year, mainly attributable to aggressive trade policies, including sweeping new import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump, which have intensified global trade tensions and heightened investor anxiety. Also, central banks worldwide have been accumulating gold reserves, led by risks arising from Trump’s policies.
Gold prices surged about 65% last year and are now trading above $4,600 per ton. The rally was further supported by the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and expectations of additional easing amid signs of U.S. economic softening and labor market concerns, which helped propel bullion to record levels.
Increased central bank buying, continued expectations of rate cuts, and persistent safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical and trade tensions, as well as broader macroeconomic uncertainty, are expected to underpin gold prices. Rising geopolitical strains, including those linked to the U.S.-Venezuela conflict and the ongoing protests in Iran and the potential U.S. intervention, and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have also fueled the recent spike in bullion to record levels. Together, these factors are likely to keep conditions favorable for further upside in gold prices.
NEM offers a dividend yield of 0.9% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 17% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable). Backed by strong cash flows and sound financial health, the company's dividend is perceived as safe and reliable.
Falling Gold Production Weighs on Newmont’s Performance
Newmont saw lower gold production for the third quarter of 2025, partly linked to its strategic divestment of non-core assets. NEM reported a roughly 15% year-over-year and 4% sequential decline in gold production for the third quarter, reaching 1.42 million ounces. This marked the third straight quarter of sequential production decline. The lower production was due to reduced grades and planned shutdowns at Penasquito and Lihir, and the end of mining operations at the Subika open pit at Ahafo South. NEM’s strategic asset sales, aimed at sharpening focus on Tier-1 operations, have also weighed on production.
Newmont anticipates maintaining its expected gold production for 2025 at about 5.9 million ounces. For the fourth quarter, the company expects attributable production to be relatively in line with the third quarter, as new production from Ahafo North and increased output from the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture are expected to be offset by lower production at Yanacocha and lower grades at Ahafo South. NEM expects fourth-quarter production of 1.415 million ounces, indicating a roughly 25% year-over-year decline. The production decline could undercut the profitability goals for 2025.
NEM’s Earnings Estimates Northbound
Newmont’s earnings estimates for 2025 have been going up over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 has also been revised higher over the same time frame.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is currently pegged at $6.32, suggesting year-over-year growth of 81.6%. Earnings are expected to grow roughly 15.4% in 2026.
A Look at Newmont Stock’s Valuation
Newmont is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 15.42X, a roughly 5.2% premium to the industry’s average of 14.66X. NEM is trading at a premium to Barrick and Kinross Gold and at a discount to Agnico Eagle. Newmont currently has a Value Score of C. Barrick and Kinross Gold have a Value Score of B, each, while Agnico Eagle has a Value Score of D.
NEM’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, B, AEM and KGC
Final Thoughts: Hold Onto NEM Shares
Newmont presents an attractive investment case, backed by a robust portfolio of growth projects, the strong performance of its Tier 1 assets and solid financial health. The asset streamlining rooted in Newmont’s objective to concentrate capital on high-return, long-life assets also underpins its long-term sustainability. Other positives include rising earnings estimates and a healthy growth trajectory. The strength in bullion prices should also boost NEM’s profitability and drive cash flow generation. However, weaker production due to divestments and lower grades may weigh on its performance. Retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.